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Hu Strengthened By Shanghai Shakeout Oxford Analytica 09.29.06, 6:00 AM ET Chen Liangyu was dismissed on Sept. 24 as party secretary of Shanghai. His sudden removal on corruption charges signifies Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Hu Jintao's final consolidation of power. Chen's dismissal was the culmination of a series of arrests in Shanghai this year that were linked to alleged misappropriations from the municipality's social security fund. As is common in anticorruption investigations, the Central Discipline and Inspection Commission (CDIC) collects evidence and metes out inner-party punishment. Evidence of criminality is then transferred to the state authorities for prosecution. Chen's case could drag on for two years or more before a formal sentence is imposed. The CDIC team is expected to make more arrests. Chen's removal consolidates the position of the current leadership under Hu after a four-year transition from the old order, under Jiang Zemin. Taken together with the increasingly stringent retirement age for standing committee members, the Shanghai investigation renders much of the current Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) politically powerless in the runup to the 17th Chinese Communist Party National Congress. In the upcoming party congress, Hu will probably dominate the agenda and appoint many members of his Communist Youth League faction to senior positions. The corruption investigations have left the Shanghai municipal government paralyzed, with a number of leadership positions to fill. While Beijing will want a suitably experienced candidate to run so important a city, Hu now has an opportunity to promote into the Politburo before next year's party congress. (The Shanghai party secretary is usually in the Politburo.) This person might then move into the PSC. Local officials who took advantage of the lack of clear leadership at the center to ignore central decrees are expected to fall in line. Hitting Shanghai has sent a strong signal to other regions that Beijing intends to exercise control. However, Hu is cautious by nature and needs a broad support base, which suggests he can only go so far. Hu is tightening his grip on power in the runup to the national party congress next year, which should see the PSC reconstituted more to his liking. This would put him firmly in control of China until 2012, when he would be expected to stand down, and would open the way for him to establish a legacy and select his successor.

[Forbes News] Hu Strengthened By Shanghai Shakeout