返回信息流Scott Reeves, 08.28.06, 2:20 PM ET
Adobe Systems will face stiff competition from Microsoft in the future, but it's likely to benefit from several powerful growth trends, a Morningstar analyst believes.
"Almost all creative professionals are trained to use Photoshop and Illustrator," Morningstar analyst Toan Tran said in a research report. "High switching costs make it difficult for rivals to gain market acceptance."
But Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) will use its Windows and Office dominance to launch a PDF competitor, posing a significant risk to Adobe (nasdaq: ADBE - news - people ).
Tran also warns that Ajax, a free and universal technology, could eventually supplant Flash as the standard platform for Web applications.
"In our opinion, the two largest threats to Adobe come from Microsoft and industry-standard technologies like Ajax," Tran said. "With the release of Windows Vista and Office in 2007, Microsoft will introduce XPS, a competing format to Acrobat and PostScript."
The analyst warned that many of Adobe's top products are mature and have already been updated several times.
Adobe Systems plans to launch new product cycles with Acrobat 8 expected to ship late this year and Creative Suite 3 expected to ship in early 2007.
Tran pegs Adobe's fair value at $38 per share, and suggests that investors may want to consider buying the stock at $29.30 or below and selling at $47.60.
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[Forbes News]Adobe Faces Microsoft, Ajax Threats: Analyst
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