BYR Achieve · 镜像论坛

首次尝试！ Bear markets and their recoveries rarely have a clear V shape, and this one is trickier than usual . 熊市和他的追回款一向很难得到彻底的胜利，然而，这一次是特别的难。 Since the stock market entered bear territory in July, market strategists have been looking for signs of "capitulation"—the cathartic sell-off, the big washout that sets the stage for a stock market recovery, however tentative. On Oct. 7, after Monday's brutal selling, economist and strategist Edward Yardeni spoke for a lot of people when he wrote in a note to clients: "I'm not sure, but that sure seemed like capitulation yesterday." 自从股票市场七月进入熊市以来，市场战略家们开始寻找“衰败”的迹象——无论如何，全部抛出，这个大动作已经开始登上了股票市场追回款的舞台。十月七日，在星期一不愉快的买卖之后，经济学家和战略家爱德华.亚德尼再给客户的笔记里对很多人说，“我不能肯定，但是从昨天的情形来看，市场似乎正在屈服。” Yet clean inflection points, when stock prices make a decisive turn up, are devilishly tough to spot. In prior downturns there have been moments when prices plunged to what looked like a market bottom from which they could start climbing again, only to move sideways or falter. In the spring and summer of 2001 the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index seemed to recover from the dot-com collapse of the previous year, only to turn down in late summer, even before September 11. 峰回路转。当股票的价格持续低迷，似乎在更加恶化的时候，情况出现了决定性的转机。在之前股票持续走下坡路的时候，其中曾有一刻，似乎走到了谷底，只要再向旁边摇一摇就会从新开始上升。2001年的春天，the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index 的持续低迷只要延迟到春天或者9.11似乎就又要回到前一年的消沉了。 Back in October 1974, prices plunged, rallied, and then fell again in December. In contrast, the crash of October 1987 was followed by a clear and quick recovery. But that abrupt drop was widely attributed to the effects of automated selling and wasn't long enough to qualify as a bear market. 回到1974年的十月，价格陷入低迷，然后重新振作，然后又在12月再次陷入低迷。和1987年十月的重又低迷形成了鲜明的对比，这次很快的完全恢复了。但是那次低迷的原因很大一部分要归咎于自动化产品的大量涌入市场，并且她还不至于导致熊市的发生。 As for the recent wave of panic selling, Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research at Fusion IQ, a New York financial research firm, says that while we may be at a nadir, he doubts it. "The bottom will have come when people say: 'Screw equities,'" Ritholtz says. He adds that the crisis now weighing on the market—an epic deleveraging wave, a broken financial system, and an historic housing bust—is far more complex and fast-moving than either the dot-com collapse or the oil shock recession of the early 1970s. So previous bear markets may not be of much guidance this time around. 对于最近由于市场动荡而引起的惊慌。Barry Ritholtz，Fusion IQ（一家纽约金融研究公司）公平研究项目的负责人说，“当人们说‘要公平’的时候，我们就已经到了谷底了。”他还补充说，现在市场危机正在加剧——an epic deleveraging wave，一个破坏了的金融体系，一个历史性的避难所被打破——要远比上世纪70年代石油冲突所带来的经济危机复杂的多，快得多。所以，这一次的危机不能简单的说成是上一次的重复。 Doing the Math That's not to say a bounce-back of sorts isn't conceivable. Fritz Meyer, senior market strategist for mutual fund giant Invesco Aim, says a number of metrics he keeps his eye on—including the number of new lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYX) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (the so-called fear index)—tell him that market pessimism has gone too far. 在数学上做文章这并不是说恢复到从前是不可能的了。Fritz Meyer，市场战略学领域中研究mutual fund giant Invesco Aim的长老级人物，说了一个他一直关注的关于韵律学的数字——一个关于纽约股票交易市场和Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index 创造新低的数字 ——告诉他悲观的市场气氛已经远去了。 Meyer thinks U.S. equities are at or near a bottom, pointing out that most bear markets stabilize at a level roughly 30% below the market's previous high, which is about where the Dow and the S&P are now. He also notes that over 15-year periods, equities produce average annual returns in the double digits. "The stock market has this extraordinary ability to revert to a mean return of about 10%," he says. Meyer认为美国的公平交易市场已经或者说接近低谷，他指出大多数的熊市都会稳定在比之前高点低大概30%的水平，就像是Dow和S&P现在的情况。他同时指出在未来超过15年的时间里，公平市场的生产将会以平均每年两位数字的速度回升。“股票市场有超强的能力恢复到接近原来的10%”，Meyer说。 Trouble is, the Dow Jones industrial average is now about where it was 10 years ago. So stock market returns would have to be stupendous over the next five years to produce double-digit average returns. 问题在于，接下来市场必须要有惊人的恢复力度，才能达到在未来的五年以平均每年两位数的速度增长。原文来自http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104032552117.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

翻译<Stocks: Fishing for the Bottom>